A Journey of Financial Freedom.

Rant wagon

Thu, 09 May 2013 11:10:03 -0700

Wow. Blown away right now at the loss I just took. roughly 25% account loss in 1 shot. It’s crazy to think that I would let myself do that on a system that was proving to be unstable, and that I was actually up about 2% at some point. HOW. I know I and everyone will look back on this saying “beginners mistake” and that you don’t really grow to be an elite trader until you can stop making those mistakes. How true it is. At this point I don’t know if I can complete the challenge but I’ll still give it my all. Every week is a step closer, and the account balance sways from nul to win to lose and honestly it can be frustrating. what am I missing? How much? what’s next? Sigh. Breathe.

Answering the original goal of the blog:

Fri, 15 Feb 2013 22:10:00 -0800

Welp, what started as a project to learn more has become a self competition. And damn do I enjoy competition.

I probably posted something about it at the end-of-the-year blog series, but I’ll re-hash it here. In my eyes, the answer to the question put out on day 1, Jan 1, 2012 is yes. Yes it is possible to make money trading. But I need to prove it. To myself, and to anyone who might stumble onto this blog. That is the point of allllll of this. The only way to do this is to have a proven record of success, which myfxbook does. I already started 1 account, posted it, and lost a little. I then hedged a position with another account which led to what appears to be an even bigger loss. Honest statement. However, in the world of the internet I don’t expect anyone to believe that I truly hedged it. A true observer should be open-minded yet slightly skeptic. The link to the account is not to be deleted until the end of 2013 minimum.

1 thing is certain: the world of investing and speculation is not easy. To expect great results in 1 year is laughable. I am also not the average ‘lets make a blog and go for it’. I really committed to the blog and learning, and will continue to do so until I succeed.

Here’s what’s going to happen:

I’m giving myself until the end of the year to be profitable. Considerably profitable. The results I want to achieve should leave no doubt to the question “Did I get lucky?” It will be clear. I will have either succeeded or failed.

I will dummy test against 20 different random buy/sell hold situations. They will be listed at the bottom of this post, and are assuming an open position today (even though markets are closed). The ‘random walk theory’ will not be an available argument. That being said, I will say the yens have been absolutely crazy. It is very possible that they will make gains of over 100% by the end of the year and will blow my results out of the water. We will deal with it then.

I will not add any more money to the account. Even though it is in a hole not due to my system, I will be content with digging myself out of it. More of a challenge I suppose.

I’m not boasting nor bragging about how easy this will be. It won’t be. The talk is gone, the observations and hindsight trading are gone. All that’s left is completing the task.

In all, it is fairly basic: the account that was started Jan 2, 2013, will have a 1 year test to answer the question of Jan 1, 2012. That’s it! see ya’ll on the other side.

Control test: 15 pairs, both buying and selling. I’m seeing weekend spreads, but 10 pips isn’t going to make the hit or miss when the end of the year rolls around

EUR/USD BUY 1.33628
EUR/USD SELL 1.33585

AUD/USD BUY 1.03083
AUD/USD SELL 1.03022

GBP/USD BUY 1.55203
GBP/USD SELL 1.55152

USD/CHF BUY .92229
USD/CHF SELL .92144

USD/CAD BUY 1.00663
USD/CAD SELL 1.00615

NZD/USD BUY .84574
NZD/USD SELL .84424

USD/JPY BUY 93.534
USD/JPY SELL 93.468

EUR/AUD BUY 1.29710
EUR/AUD SELL 1.29610

EUR/GBP BUY .86126
EUR/GBP SELL .86068

EUR/CAD BUY 1.34504
EUR/CAD SELL 1.34404

EUR/JPY BUY 124.978
EUR/JPY SELL 124.878

AUD/NZD BUY 1.22109
AUD/NZD SELL 1.21821

AUD/JPY BUY 96.418
AUD/JPY SELL 96.292

GBP/AUD BUY 1.50651
GBP/AUD SELL 1.50512

GBP/JPY BUY 145.146
GBP/JPY SELL 145.031

wordpress and post project update

Thu, 31 Jan 2013 15:02:37 -0800

as of tomorrow, my word press will no longer be automatically linked to my tumblr. users who want to continue reading up on that should bookmark the link!

I will continue to provide commentary on here about whatever system I’m using. For those who can see my fxbook acc, I am indeed in the negative! 1 year of learning and still losing haha. I will continue trading the account until it busts or has a successful record. Wish me luck!

Jan 30

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 10:07:51 -0800

After a few stalling days price broke 1.35. Last year I would have taken a much bigger risk considering 1.35 is quite the resistance and put up a fight for 3 or so days.
Go with the flow. Zhu didn’t give me any signals yesterday, but emphasized patience to…

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Jan 29

Tue, 29 Jan 2013 13:13:17 -0800

Last night:
Early down move in late Asian session. London opened up moving higher, second hour saw the beginnings of a downmove a little past daily s1(2?), monthly r1, and daily ADR. Rest of the move was up back to 1.3490

Improve: I left a hanging order…

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Jan 28

Mon, 28 Jan 2013 11:36:43 -0800

It appears that the scalp system works, I just really need to trust in it. Issues again. I did have some kinks that need to be worked out, yesterday was the first of many. If a 2 bar shows up, the the criteria for the second bar green? or not red? what…

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answer in the morning

Mon, 28 Jan 2013 01:21:26 -0800

Bias into LO was bear. Price climbed up slowly but was hammered down by bears quickly. what was the true direction?

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Jan 25

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 11:09:35 -0800

The week ended with null, win, lose, null, lose. My win essentially wiped my bigger loser so net was -2%
Pros:
-i did a good job following my rules. I adjusted trades a ton on my win day, mostly moving tp so I ended up with a much bigger gain than intended.

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New system

Thu, 24 Jan 2013 11:07:06 -0800

I demoed a new system this past week and its up quite a bit. Interestingly enough I found this week hard to trade as a discretionary trader, last night was especially rough. Going back live tonight with the funds that were in the original London break system

Jan 23

Wed, 23 Jan 2013 10:33:18 -0800

dang I messed up again; I took on too much risk last night and ended up killing a lot of the profit I made. I need to think of some better money management tools and rules.

ADR was hit perfectly, both sides. I should really be aiming to get those each…

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Jan 222 signals, plus some minor details. too much action in...

Tue, 22 Jan 2013 23:28:46 -0800

Jan 22

2 signals, plus some minor details. too much action in asian session, not enough bullishness feel.…

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posting a live trade: short e/u EP 1.33618, SL 1.3375, TP at 20 and 40 pips (1.3341 and 1.3321) this...

Mon, 21 Jan 2013 23:22:57 -0800

posting a live trade: short e/u EP 1.33618, SL 1.3375, TP at 20 and 40 pips (1.3341 and 1.3321)

this could likely be good for a much bigger pip haul

Jan 22

Mon, 21 Jan 2013 14:02:30 -0800

Choppy Monday, also sometimes known as no action. The only signal i got for Thr night was a pinbar on the 5m, which was good for about 20 pips. Unfortunately it was in a less than ideal position, so I didn’t commit very much at all.

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Jan 18Still having trouble following my own rules. I stayed up...

Fri, 18 Jan 2013 15:37:42 -0800

Jan 18

Still having trouble following my own rules. I stayed up for most of the London session today, and…

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So crazy

Fri, 18 Jan 2013 14:10:29 -0800

You the know the phrase, “so crazy, it just might work?” That’s what came to my head today when I was looking at charts; but rather, it was: “so stupid, it just might be profitable” It’s an idea similar to the London Break, however much, much, much more simple. This one looks like it could actually be programmed into an EA, although its so easy to execute manually I likely won’t bother with it.

Still checklist based but hopefully this time it’ll be so I won’t have the opportunity to end up with a 1/1/1 split. Backtesting later, aiming to go live sunday night!

Jan 17Easier day today. I would say from easy to hard, 1-5,...

Thu, 17 Jan 2013 10:33:50 -0800

Jan 17

Easier day today. I would say from easy to hard, 1-5, today would be a 2.

The box tells it all.…

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Yup, trashed the system

Thu, 17 Jan 2013 00:52:21 -0800

The system gave a sell signal, although not the clearest. However my own analysis gave a bullish bias, so I didn’t bother trading it. The reversal long would have made up for the losses, but at the end of the day the more important signal (the first) proved to be false. I’ll be looking for another mechanical system to trade.

London Break System

Wed, 16 Jan 2013 16:57:45 -0800

Broke a few rules yesterday and ended up down less than I would have been.

I recorded my results as usual in excel and noticed something slightly alarming.

1. There has never been a 3 day draw down as I have had in the past 3 days.

2. This is the first month of the new year; it is possible markets change from year to year.

3. In the backtested 62 days, there are 11 days in which the Asian session indicator gave a split even number of bull bars and bear bars; In the past 10 days, I’ve had 7 split days.

These results lead me to believe that the system is just not working. Perhaps next month, perhaps in June, perhaps next year, but as of January, it doesn’t work. If the system presents a 3/3 or 4/4 split tonight, I will not trade it. In the meantime, i’ll be looking to change the system.

Jan 16Much trickier setup last night. The structure entering...

Wed, 16 Jan 2013 14:18:54 -0800

Jan 16

Much trickier setup last night.

The structure entering into LO yesterday was quite bearish. I…

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Jan 15Shit, lost a TON last night. I went long on Eur/Jpy, which...

Tue, 15 Jan 2013 11:56:48 -0800

Jan 15

Shit, lost a TON last night. I went long on Eur/Jpy, which turned out to be a terrible idea,…

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