The thoughts and techniques of trading, as learned through a student. Currently only trading currencies:
Welcome! This is my 2012-2013 daily journal/blog to see if, and to what extent, trading can really be done for the average Joe; Without the fancy automated trading systems, spending thousands of dollars on books and seminars, and quad monitor business. Everything I have learned is through the internet and free e-books.
Dow: The dow pushed right up to the resistance and then back down again. Looking at the chart, that’s now the 4th time it’s hit that line, and also the 3rd/4th time it’s hit the support at the first retracement as well. Seems reasonable for things to be slightly bearish next week
I need to remember that prices on the indexes are still above support. So higher highs don’t look that likely, but just because the market isn’t going up doesn’t mean it’s going down.
Another week of wondering if the market signals are going in favor to turn south. This time I think it’s more leaning towards a retracement, but there still isn’t confirmation. The dow and S&P look like they’re moving together, but the Nasdaq isn’t quite there:
Dow: Back in November, through the course of about a month, the Dow showed signs of a retracement that started with 3 moves of lower highs. In other words, what looked like a downtrend. The moving average was eventually broken through, and the index met some resistance, which was soon reversed back into the uptrend that I’ve been seeing.
This sort of thing is happening again now, although the top and trend does not look as defined, but a form of resistance looks pretty clear.
As of recently, the dow has been on a crazy uptrend. The question is, when was the last time the Dow was this high? Is it at an all time high? So I pulled up a weekly chart, and pulled it back as far as possible.
Nice to see that resistances and supports from 3 years ago are still in place.
Nasdaq: Shows something similar to the Dow, but the retracement that occurred in the Dow in November are not as defined here. The triple top as of the past few weeks that has happened in the dow is also not very present here.
S&P: This one is much more in agreement with the Dow.
Word on the street is that the market is going down when Monday rolls around
More signals, no confirmations as far as I can tell. Quick peak at what the week charts look at, with the important parts highlighted
Weekly Dow: Hanging man under trend? I think it’d be better if it was a little higher
Weekly Nasdaq: Like this one
Weekly S&P: More of a doji here
Daily Dow: I was tempted to say that a Falling Three Methods pattern may be forming, but it’s not in a down trend. I should be expecting reversal signals instead. So far Not really seeing anything, although there’s a new resistance point that hasn’t been broken. Notice the lull that’s been happening for the past month almost of no real move.
Daily Nasdaq: New resistance on this one too. This index seems to gap a lot more than the dow does. It dropped under MA and bounced back up. The support seems to be holding well.
Daily S&P:This is also contained pretty tight. Not as much by MAs or trend lines, but by resistance and supports.
Dow: Interesting per usual. This week all the indexes had 1 candle that stuck out to me: a green candle that pushed at a higher high, and didn’t make it. It should be obvious that the big 13k mark should be a point of strong resistance, and that’s what happened. It shot up, and managed to even close at the high, but was brought back down immediately after. Even so, I noticed that this week, specifically with the dow, that the trading range was pretty tight. The past 2 weeks have been all contained in the box I randomly drew. I’d consider this to be a consolidation block for sure. The only point out of the box was the push for the high.
Nasdaq: The green candle for this one for the higher high didn’t mange to close above, and in fact is more of a doji. The difference is the nasdaq trended higher this week, as opposed to sitting around like the dow. I’d take this to be news that even though there may be some early reversal signals, I still don’t think it’s there yet. It’s kind of cool to see how the box shows the points of contention with the index. Monday was the 27th, which started with the strong green candle to push the index higher. the red boxes who places where the index was below the MA, and the 2 red boxes at the end are both testing the box boundaries (as in the week’s progress) as well as the MA.
S&P: the S&P also trended higher, and also had the green candle that couldn’t make it. The price at the end of the week was below the trend line I drew, as well as under the MA. Things could start looking bearish if it starts testing below this weeks progress I suppose, though without the confirmation of the other indexes, I wouldn’t be confident in any major move.
Overall verdict is still slight bull/consolidation. I didn’t mention them in each index, but there were several attempts throughout the indexes to push below the MA or trend, and they were all pushed back up. So there’s still quite a bit of support from below.